Shark Attacks and Ice Cream Sales – Correlation or Causation?

In the mathematical and scientific community, you will find many hypotheses about what factors cause what affects. Sometimes they are accurate, but many are flawed or downright wrong. This is a problem in many fields of work, such as politics, business, medicine, and affects people in their day to day lives as well. This is why it is crucial to understand the mathematical concept of correlation and causation, which has been our unit for the past month in math. We have learned some fascinating things, such as how ice cream sales correlate with shark attacks and how a survey can represent an entire population with only interviewing a small percentage of it. If you want to know about grade 9’s Final Scimathics Project, then read on.

Correlation and Causation

People can learn a concept well from explanation, but the best way to teach someone is to give them examples and allow them to see the concept in action. This was exactly what we did at the start of the unit though a collection of graphs displaying data. All of the graphs had two populations which were rising or falling steadily around the same rate, but the data the graphs held were all quite different. Some had things that would make sense to be grouped together, such as the increase in smoking and the increase in lung cancer. We soon learned that this is called a causation, meaning one or both of the factors causes the other. We also looked at bizarre comparisons, such as the decrease in margarine sales and the decreasing divorce rate, which didn’t seem to cause each other in any way. This we learned is known as a correlation, meaning the two factors have a similar trend, but are caused by an outlying factor (such as warm weather increasing shark attacks and ice cream sales) or being pure coincidence.

A Random Correlation without Causation

I feel that learning about correlation and causation is a rather simple concept, but one that will be crucial to know in our lives. This will play out in our careers, for many of us will be tied to a business or company in some way and must understand the correlations and causations in profits and products. It’s also important to understand in everyday life when browsing the media, for many sources give false information of correlations that they claim are causations. With this in mind, it was important to explore these concepts in greater depths, which lead to…

Our Project

For the majority of the unit, we were given time to work on our final projects of the year, our correlation vs causation presentations. These could either be live, or displayed in video format, and had to show the difference between causation and correlation. This project was unique from others for we were given full control over our rubric; deciding individually what we wished to be assessed on. After we understood the concepts, we were given the initial task of finding a causation and a correlation to research. Through some investigating I found two sets of data that would be interesting to look at which was the increase of housing prices and the First Nations population, along with how the rise in stress level may be caused by the hours of extra curricular activity a student participates in. I chose these two things for they affect me and my friends/family directly.

My Original Project Pitches

I started off with research from government surveys and data collection forums. I found this part tricky for I didn’t know where to begin and was overwhelmed with all the data I was presented. This was when I found the value in taking notes. I wrote down the main points from each source, along with the details such as numbers and names, and found with it my presentation began to take shape. Written sources were useful, but specific questions can’t always be answered through them. This was when I decided to conduct some interviews. One of these was with a First Nations representative named Discon who was able to give me insight on the current state First Nations housing in Canada. I also talked to my teacher Mr Gross for more details on the Canadian housing market, such as what are the main factors contributing to its rise. With this, I had solid data for both of my topics, and was able to move on to my presentation.

I decided that a video would make the most sense for it would be smoother than a live presentation. Using iMovie as an editing tool, I created slides in keynote and screen recorded them. When data was to be displayed, I used a variety of types of methods including bar graphs, pie charts, and diagrams. I also used a mixture of custom animations and real photos to demonstrate my points. When writing my script, I took the points that related best to my topic and complied them in an understandable order. I then did my voice over and my video was complete. If you want to watch it, look below:

Reflection

Grade 9 has been a unique year for me in terms of my learning, for I feel I have finally shifted to taking more responsibility in my academics. What I mean by this was for many years I accredited success in a project to my teachers or the assignment itself, basically under the assumption that you can’t do good work with project you don’t understand well or dislike. I have now come to realize though, that if you want to get something done, you can find a way if you take whatever problems you are having into your own hands. I found the apparently true with math as I had a hard time for many years with understanding it. It dawned on me this year that although my learning style more involves doing than listening, it was still my problem when I wasn’t paying attention to the teacher and engaging as much as I should be. I applied this new info throughout the year which helped me do better work, specifically in Metaphor Machines, the Chemistry Unit, and our current correlation and causation Unit. As of improvements, I still feel I could learn to simplify more. I have however learned to follow criteria better which is demonstrated in my last two projects. Overall, I’m proud of how I’ve worked this year in math and science, and am ready to move forwards to grade 10.

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